Waving flags: the end of the UK?

Could a vote to Leave the European Union on June 23rd spell the end of the UK?

It's a very real potential consequence that doesn't seem to be discussed much.

The UK will vote as one country whether to leave the EU, but the UK isn't one country. What English people decide to do might be different from what the Scots or Welsh decide. 

Hypothetical situation 1

Let's say England votes overwhelmingly to Leave the EU (which is entirely possible), but Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all vote to Remain. 

But, because England is the more overwhelmingly populous country, her votes to Leave outnumbers the combined Remain votes from the latter three countries? So the entire UK leaves the EU, directly against the decision of the people of 3 of the 4 countries that make up the UK.

What then?

There is certainly a democratic deficit here, and the question really is whether this deficit might spark a constitutional crisis that could force the breaking up of the United Kingdom.

Should the people of, say, Wales, be forced to Leave the EU when the Welsh people overwhelmingly vote to Remain? Should the Scots or people of Northern Ireland?

And this hypothetical situation is a distinct possibility. Consistent polling shows that by a significant amount the people of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will vote to Remain, while the UK vote as a whole is polling at roughly even.

If this very possible hypothesis is realised, I see another Scottish independence referendum around the corner, but this time with a massive YES vote. And with it, moves to speed up the devolution of an independent Wales. 

Northern Ireland would be more complicated (isn't it

always?), although Sinn Féin is justifiably demanding a referendum in NI on

Ireland reunification if the UK Leaves and NI votes to Remain. Which I would say is fair enough - do the people of NI want to remain with England outside of the EU, or reunify with Ireland and remain in the EU?

That would be an interesting discussion.

Now, an argument against this situation occurring would be that at

General Elections, Scotland and Wales would rather cut off their collective hands than ever vote Tory, but under a Tory Government they live due to accepting the results of the full UK vote, at the 2015 elections led almost entirely by (largely southern) English votes. 

True. And being ruled by a Tory Government that they didn't vote for is one of the main arguments that justifies Scotland's claim to independence.

But at least people in those non-Tory voting countries and regions can be represented by an MP and council of their own choosing. Leaving the EU is all or nothing; we're either all in, or we're all out.

Hypothetical situation 2

Or, another hypothetical? What if England narrowly votes to Leave, but the Remain votes from the Scotland, Wales and NI are so numerous that they dwarf the English Leave votes. So the UK remains a member of the EU, but the largest country in the UK voted to leave. What then? Stronger and maybe more justified calls for an independent English Parliament, contributing still to a further breakup of UK union? 

If the UK does vote to Leave, it's difficult to see how the union will stay together.

The irony here, of course, is that many of the goons that campaigned so hard for Scotland to reject independence and maintain the United Kingdom are, by campaigning so vociferously for the UK to leave the EU, the very same people that could smash the whole thing up.

Who's In Control?

June 23^rd. 

It ain't so far away, now. The EU referendum approaches, and from here it looks very much like nobody in Britain is pulling their fingers out to make the case for the UK staying in the EU.

They (the Out campaign) have Boris, Gove and Duncan-Smith, Farage, George Galloway - like or loathe them, high-profile and influential politicians one and all - most of the Tory front and back bench, and most of the rabid rightwing press. Bear this in mind, people voting for Brexit: these lunatics and sycophants are the unbearable people you are standing with!

And those main players campaigning for Britain to remain? Cameron and Osbourne. The two politicians front centre of the campaign to remain are right now about as popular as an offshore tax advisor.

Who else? Corbyn and Labour – the party and the leader that could make such a difference here? Warm but generally disinterested support at best, so much so that a pretty huge 40% of people polled have no idea where Corbyn stands on the issue. In fact, Corbyn has previously been a pretty ardent Eurosceptic, having voted against EC membership in the 1975 referendum, the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 and the Lisbon Treaty in 2008. Labour are officially in favour of staying, but can we expect the party to grow a backbone and put their collective shoulder to the Remain campaign. I certainly hope so, but, sadly, I suspect not.

Nobody will rightly trust the Lib Dems for a long, long time, and by bringing their toxic brand to the Remain campaign will likely damage it in much the way their support poisoned the Yes campaign in the 2011 AV referendum. And while the Greens are the only UK Parliamentary party unashamedly making the case to remain, their influence is limited.

Leaving the EU would be a disaster for the UK. But because an utter lack of support for the Remain campaign by non-odious politicians, my fear is that we are about to sleepwalk through the EXIT door in a cloud of 'meh'.

The people that want us out are ferocious in their decision and belief, and will march determinedly in unison to the voting booth in June. But those who want us to remain, or who are generally happy with the status quo, are those least likely to vote. With the country seized by a collective apathy, turnout is unlikely to be particularly high at the referendum. Which would mean that the UK could be about to catastrophically leave the EU on the say of a tiny minority of misinformed, lied to, or swivel-eyed Tory and UKIP voters.

Daily Mail readers, basically.

So, Britain, is this who you want deciding our future? Ridiculous, isn't it? For goodness sake, sort it out, yeah?